Background to COP17

Copenhagen 2009 was a critical climate convention which ended inconclusively. The following year in Cancún, Mexico the ground work began to be laid for the COP17 to be held in Durban in late 2011. In order to better understand what is at stake in Durban and the complicated nature of the negotiations, background information about the work leading to the Copenhagen conference (and its outcomes) is very helpful.

The road to Copenhagen
The aim of the UN climate change conference, which was held in Copenhagen in December 2009, was to conclude negotiations on a wide-ranging, post-December 2012 climate protection convention. That was what the international community agreed at the Bali Conference on Climate Change in 2007 when it adopted what has become known as the Bali Roadmap. The convention will come into force in 2013, following directly from the first commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol.

Negotiations leading to the Copenhagen convention

Enlarge image (© UN Climate Change Conference Copenhagen) In order to take account of the reservations expressed by developing countries, as well as the fact that the United States (the largest emitter of greenhouse gases) has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the negotiations leading up to Copenhagen were held in two separate negotiating groups, both ending in 2009.

One group, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments (AWG KP), was founded in 2006 and held negotiations on future emissions reduction obligations for industrialised countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. It was agreed at the Bali Conference that the reductions corridor for industrialised countries put forward by the International Panel on Climate Change, 25-40 per cent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, would be used as the basis for further deliberations. They also agreed on the fact that emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism and joint implementation will be used from 2012.

The other group, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG LCA) held negotiations on emissions reduction contributions by non-Kyoto industrialised countries, the United States in particular, as well as on what developing countries can contribute to future climate protection regimes. This group was set up during the Bali Conference and will be dealing with the following issues that were the cornerstones of the Copenhagen Convention: a long-term, global emissions reduction target, verifiable and comparable reductions targets for industrialised countries, reduction measures to be taken by developing countries, technical and financial support to be given to developing countries both when reducing emissions and when adapting to climate change.

Encouraging for both of these groups was the commitment at the G8 Summit in L'Aguila Italy in early July, 2009 that global warming must not exceed 2 degrees Celsius. The leaders' committed to reducing emissions by 80 percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This is a tall order but the heads of state hope that in their respective nations, the population will also demonstrate the political will to achieve these critical goals.

Origins of climate change and possible solutions
Climate change is predominantly caused by humans. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which published its 4th Assessment Report in 2007, leaves no doubt about that. According to more recent publications, it is feared that climate change is progressing much more rapidly than previously assumed. It will only be possible to keep climate change within a manageable framework if we manage to reverse the trend in emissions by 2020. The positive news is that we have the technology to do just that.

Other global challenges alongside climate change are rising commodity prices and the recession on account of the financial crisis. An integrated energy and climate policy, investments in energy efficiency and expanding renewable energies all reduce emissions, reduce dependency on energy imports, increase domestic net investments, create jobs and also have a stabilising effect on financial markets.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, the former Chief Economist of the World Bank, Sir Nicholas Stern, and the UNEP Executive Secretary, Achim Steiner, among others, have pointed out these largely positive impacts. In addition, a worldwide, ambitious climate protection regime has a decisive role to play when it comes to poverty reduction.

Emissions by developing countries (non-Annex I countries), especially those emerging economies like China and India that are undergoing rapid economic development, are increasing quickly. In a little more than a decade they will exceed emissions by industrialised countries if no countermeasures are taken. But even then their per capita emissions will be below those of industrialised countries.

The heads of state and government of the EU Member States have agreed that in order to keep climate change within manageable limits, global warming must not exceed 2° Celsius. That means that emissions must be at least halved by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

The main emitters among the industrialised countries must reduce their emissions by considerably more than has been the case in the past. 
Developing countries, especially those whose emissions will greatly increase over the coming years, must contribute to a future climate regime in accordance with their capabilities and considerably decouple emissions growth from economic growth. Climate protection measures adopted in industrialised and developing countries will mean that long-term per capita emissions will be gradually aligned worldwide on the road to a joint climate protection target.

International solidarity with developing countries
Enlarge image A delegate at earlier Ad Hoc group meeting (AWG KP), Bonn (© Courtesy IISD) Developing countries are afraid that introducing strict climate protection measures too quickly will hinder their economic development. Industrialised countries are worried that their businesses will lose their competitive edge in those sectors in which they are competing directly with businesses in developing countries that are subject to lower climate protection obligations. All the countries that took part in the Bali Conference acknowledged their joint responsibility for overcoming climate change through their own contributions.

Developing countries cannot alone shoulder the considerable costs incurred when implementing climate protection measures in their countries. According to estimates by the EU Commission, nearly 100 billion Euro will need to be invested in climate protection by the end of the next decade. Another several tens of billions of Euro will be required for adaptation measures.

In view of these considerable financial requirements, the future climate regime must establish a new financial architecture that diverts private and public funds into climate-friendly investments. Without substantial, predicable financial support for developing countries it will not be possible to integrate these countries successfully into a global 2°C strategy. The EU has already declared its willingness to take on a fair share of the necessary financial means required for climate protection measures in developing countries.